Total fertility rate

From Metapedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Map of countries by fertility rate (2018), according to the CIA World Factbook.

The total fertility rate (TFR), sometimes also called the fertility rate, absolute/potential natality, period total fertility rate (PTFR), or total period fertility rate (TPFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:

  1. She was to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and
  2. She was to survive from birth to the end of her reproductive life.

It is considered a better measure of fertility than the birth rate (annual number of births per thousand population) because it is independent of the age structure of the population.

Replacement fertility rate

2.1 is the “replacement” TFR for developed countries in peacetime. If a parent generation has a 2.1 TFR, the child generation will be the same size (ignoring migration). Any TFR below 2.1 means a naturally shrinking population. Any TFR above 2.1 means a naturally growing population. (See Effects of TFR Over Time). For most Third World countries, replacement TFR is thought to be 2.5[1], while the global average is 2.3 as of 2023[2].

Replacement TFR in a stable economy with modern healthcare is 2.1 because it allows each woman to replace herself and her husband (2.0 children for 2.0 parents) in the next generation – the small extra amount covers those in the child generation who are never able to procreate, such as the retarded and those who die in accidents or from disease in childhood.

Fertility Rates in Western Countries

TFRs in countries of majority-Western European ancestry[3][4][5]
Year  Australia  Austria  Belgium Denmark  Finland  France  Germany  Greece Iceland  Ireland  Italy  Luxembourg Norway  Portugal  Spain  Sweden  Switzerland  United Kingdom  United States
1960 3.45 2.70 2.55 2.57 2.71 2.74 2.37 2.28 4.29 3.78 2.41 2.37 2.85 3.01 2.77 2.17 2.34 2.71 3.65
1961 3.55 2.79 2.64 2.55 2.65 2.82 2.45 2.19 3.88 3.78 2.41 2.42 2.91 3.18 2.75 2.21 2.48 2.78 3.62
1962 3.43 2.80 2.59 2.58 2.66 2.80 2.44 2.23 3.98 3.92 2.46 2.41 2.89 3.21 2.79 2.25 2.46 2.87 3.46
1963 3.34 2.82 2.68 2.64 2.66 2.90 2.51 2.22 4.02 4.01 2.56 2.37 2.91 3.08 2.87 2.33 2.68 2.90 3.32
1964 3.15 2.80 2.73 2.60 2.24 2.58 2.91 2.31 3.87 4.07 2.70 2.40 2.95 3.15 3.01 2.47 2.85 2.95 3.19
1965 2.97 2.71 2.60 2.61 2.46 2.85 2.50 2.30 3.73 4.04 2.66 2.39 2.93 3.08 2.94 2.39 2.57 2.88 2.91
1966 2.89 2.66 2.53 2.62 2.41 2.80 2.51 2.38 3.60 3.95 2.63 2.36 2.90 3.05 2.93 2.37 2.47 2.80 2.72
1967 2.85 2.62 2.42 2.35 2.32 2.67 2.48 2.55 3.28 3.84 2.54 2.25 2.88 3.00 2.98 2.28 2.37 2.69 2.56
1968 2.89 2.59 2.31 2.12 2.15 2.59 2.38 2.53 3.06 3.77 2.49 2.14 2.78 2.90 2.92 2.07 2.28 2.61 2.46
1969 2.93 2.50 2.26 2.00 1.94 2.53 2.21 2.50 2.99 3.83 2.51 2.03 2.70 2.85 2.91 1.94 2.12 2.51 2.46
1970 2.94 2.29 2.20 1.95 1.83 2.48 2.03 2.34 2.79 3.85 2.43 1.97 2.51 2.76 2.88 1.94 2.11 2.44 2.48
1971 2.98 2.20 2.18 2.04 1.70 2.50 1.96 2.30 2.86 3.97 2.41 1.96 2.53 2.80 2.88 1.98 2.06 2.40 2.27
1972 2.74 2.09 2.09 2.03 1.59 2.42 1.73 2.32 3.09 3.93 2.36 1.75 2.37 2.70 2.86 1.93 1.95 2.20 2.01
1973 2.49 1.94 1.95 1.92 1.50 2.31 1.56 2.28 2.95 3.78 2.34 1.58 2.24 2.66 2.84 1.88 1.85 2.03 1.88
1974 2.32 1.91 1.83 1.90 1.62 2.11 1.53 2.39 2.66 3.64 2.33 1.57 2.15 2.60 2.89 1.91 1.73 1.92 1.84
1975 2.15 1.83 1.74 1.92 1.69 1.93 1.48 2.33 2.71 3.43 2.21 1.55 2.00 2.52 2.80 1.78 1.63 1.81 1.77
1976 2.06 1.69 1.73 1.75 1.72 1.83 1.51 2.35 2.53 3.35 2.11 1.48 1.88 2.57 2.79 1.70 1.55 1.74 1.74
1977 2.01 1.63 1.71 1.66 1.69 1.86 1.51 2.28 2.32 3.31 1.97 1.49 1.77 2.46 2.65 1.64 1.53 1.69 1.79
1978 1.95 1.61 1.69 1.67 1.65 1.82 1.50 2.29 2.36 3.27 1.87 1.47 1.79 2.23 2.53 1.61 1.53 1.75 1.76
1979 1.91 1.60 1.69 1.60 1.64 1.86 1.50 2.26 2.49 3.26 1.76 1.47 1.77 2.11 2.35 1.66 1.52 1.86 1.81
1980 1.89 1.65 1.67 1.55 1.63 1.95 1.56 2.23 2.49 3.25 1.68 1.49 1.74 2.19 2.19 1.69 1.57 1.90 1.84
1981 1.94 1.67 1.67 1.44 1.65 1.95 1.53 2.10 2.33 3.10 1.60 1.55 1.69 2.14 2.04 1.63 1.59 1.81 1.81
1982 1.93 1.66 1.61 1.43 1.72 1.91 1.51 2.03 2.26 2.98 1.60 1.49 1.70 2.20 1.94 1.60 1.60 1.78 1.83
1983 1.92 1.56 1.56 1.38 1.74 1.78 1.43 1.94 2.24 2.76 1.54 1.43 1.67 1.97 1.80 1.61 1.52 1.77 1.80
1984 1.84 1.52 1.59 1.40 1.70 1.80 1.39 1.82 2.08 2.57 1.48 1.42 1.66 1.94 1.73 1.66 1.52 1.77 1.81
1985 1.92 1.47 1.49 1.45 1.64 1.81 1.37 1.68 1.93 2.48 1.45 1.38 1.68 1.80 1.64 1.74 1.51 1.79 1.84
1986 1.87 1.45 1.54 1.48 1.60 1.83 1.41 1.60 1.92 2.44 1.37 1.43 1.71 1.66 1.56 1.79 1.52 1.78 1.84
1987 1.85 1.43 1.55 1.51 1.59 1.80 1.43 1.50 2.05 2.31 1.35 1.40 1.80 1.61 1.50 1.84 1.56 1.81 1.87
1988 1.83 1.45 1.56 1.56 1.70 1.81 1.46 1.50 2.20 2.17 1.38 1.51 1.84 1.60 1.45 1.96 1.59 1.82 1.93
1989 1.84 1.44 1.57 1.62 1.71 1.79 1.42 1.40 2.17 2.08 1.35 1.52 1.88 1.53 1.40 2.02 1.62 1.79 2.01
1990 1.90 1.46 1.62 1.67 1.79 1.78 1.45 1.39 2.30 2.12 1.36 1.62 1.93 1.51 1.36 2.14 1.63 1.83 2.08
1991 1.85 1.51 1.57 1.68 1.80 1.77 1.33 1.38 2.19 2.09 1.33 1.60 1.92 1.43 1.33 2.12 1.68 1.82 2.06
1992 1.89 1.51 1.56 1.76 1.85 1.73 1.29 1.38 2.21 1.99 1.31 1.62 1.88 1.49 1.32 2.09 1.62 1.79 2.05
1993 1.86 1.50 1.61 1.75 1.81 1.66 1.28 1.34 2.22 1.91 1.26 1.69 1.86 1.54 1.26 2.00 1.53 1.76 2.02
1994 1.84 1.47 1.55 1.81 1.85 1.66 1.24 1.35 2.14 1.85 1.22 1.72 1.85 1.42 1.21 1.90 1.49 1.74 2.00
1995 1.82 1.42 1.57 1.81 1.81 1.71 1.25 1.32 2.08 1.86 1.19 1.67 1.85 1.37 1.18 1.74 1.46 1.71 1.98
1996 1.80 1.45 1.55 1.75 1.76 1.73 1.32 1.30 2.13 1.89 1.22 1.76 1.88 1.45 1.17 1.61 1.53 1.73 1.98
1997 1.78 1.39 1.60 1.75 1.75 1.73 1.37 1.31 2.04 1.93 1.23 1.71 1.87 1.48 1.19 1.52 1.45 1.72 1.97
1998 1.75 1.37 1.59 1.72 1.71 1.76 1.36 1.29 2.04 1.95 1.21 1.67 1.81 1.48 1.15 1.51 1.48 1.71 2.00
1999 1.75 1.34 1.62 1.73 1.73 1.79 1.36 1.28 1.99 1.90 1.23 1.71 1.85 1.49 1.20 1.50 1.47 1.68 2.01
2000 1.75 1.36 1.67 1.77 1.73 1.87 1.38 1.26 2.06 1.89 1.26 1.79 1.84 1.57 1.23 1.54 1.50 1.64 2.06
2001 1.73 1.33 1.66 1.74 1.73 1.88 1.35 1.25 1.95 1.96 1.25 1.66 1.78 1.45 1.24 1.57 1.41 1.63 2.03
2002 1.77 1.39 1.66 1.72 1.72 1.86 1.34 1.27 1.94 1.97 1.27 1.63 1.75 1.47 1.26 1.65 1.39 1.63 2.02
2003 1.75 1.38 1.63 1.76 1.76 1.87 1.34 1.28 1.99 1.99 1.29 1.62 1.80 1.44 1.31 1.71 1.39 1.70 2.05
2004 1.76 1.42 1.71 1.78 1.80 1.90 1.36 1.30 2.04 1.96 1.31 1.65 1.83 1.40 1.33 1.75 1.42 1.77 2.05
2005 1.79 1.41 1.75 1.80 1.80 1.92 1.34 1.33 2.05 1.88 1.33 1.63 1.80 1.40 1.35 1.77 1.43 1.76 2.06
2006 1.82 1.41 1.79 1.85 1.84 1.98 1.33 1.40 2.07 1.93 1.37 1.65 1.90 1.36 1.36 1.85 1.44 1.82 2.11
2007 1.87 1.39 1.78 1.84 1.83 1.96 1.37 1.41 2.09 2.04 1.40 1.61 1.88 1.33 1.40 1.88 1.46 1.87 2.12
2008 2.02 1.42 1.86 1.89 1.85 1.99 1.38 1.55 2.14 2.09 1.45 1.60 1.96 1.37 1.46 1.91 1.48 1.96 2.07
2009 1.90 1.40 1.85 1.84 1.86 1.99 1.36 1.57 2.22 2.10 1.45 1.58 1.98 1.32 1.39 1.94 1.50 1.89 2.00
2010 1.89 1.44 1.86 1.87 1.87 2.02 1.39 1.53 2.20 2.07 1.46 1.63 1.95 1.37 1.38 1.98 1.54 1.92 1.93
2011 1.92 1.43 1.81 1.75 1.83 2.00 1.39 1.42 2.02 2.03 1.44 1.51 1.88 1.30 1.34 1.90 1.52 1.91 1.89
2012 1.91 1.44 1.80 1.73 1.80 1.99 1.41 1.34 2.04 1.98 1.42 1.57 1.85 1.28 1.32 1.91 1.53 1.92 1.88
2013 1.88 1.44 1.76 1.67 1.75 1.97 1.42 1.28 1.93 1.93 1.39 1.55 1.78 1.21 1.27 1.89 1.52 1.83 1.86
2014 1.80 1.46 1.74 1.69 1.71 1.97 1.47 1.30 1.93 1.89 1.37 1.50 1.76 1.23 1.32 1.88 1.54 1.82 1.86
2015 1.81 1.49 1.70 1.71 1.65 1.95 1.50 1.33 1.81 1.85 1.35 1.47 1.73 1.30 1.33 1.85 1.54 1.80 1.84
2016 1.79 1.53 1.68 1.79 1.57 1.92 1.59 1.38 1.74 1.81 1.34 1.40 1.71 1.36 1.34 1.85 1.55 1.79 1.82
2017 1.74 1.52 1.64 1.75 1.49 1.86 1.57 1.35 1.71 1.77 1.32 1.39 1.62 1.37 1.31 1.78 1.52 1.74 1.77
2018 1.74 1.48 1.61 1.73 1.41 1.84 1.57 1.35 1.71 1.75 1.29 1.38 1.56 1.41 1.26 1.75 1.52 1.68 1.73
2019 1.66 1.46 1.60 1.70 1.35 1.83 1.54 1.32 1.74 1.72 1.27 1.34 1.53 1.42 1.24 1.70 1.48 1.63 1.71
2020 1.58 1.44 1.55 1.67 1.37 1.79 1.53 1.37 1.72 1.63 1.24 1.37 1.48 1.40 1.19 1.66 1.46 1.56 1.64
2021 1.70 1.48 1.60 1.72 1.46 1.80 1.58 1.38 1.82 1.71 1.25 1.38 1.55 1.34 1.19 1.67 1.51 1.54 1.66
2022 1.63 1.41 1.53 1.55 1.32 1.76 1.46 1.33 1.59 1.70 1.24 1.31 1.41 1.43 1.16 1.52 1.38
--
 1.67

The data for these countries includes all births, including those of non-whites.

"Germany" combines the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic.

Fertility Rates in Selected Non-Racially-European States[3]
Year: 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Afghanistan 7.25 7.28 7.40 7.59 7.57 7.53 6.10 4.75[6]
China 5.29 3.99 5.75 2.32 2.43 1.45 1.54 1.28
India 5.73 5.92 5.62 4.78 4.05 3.35 2.60 2.05
Indonesia 5.19 5.55 5.45 4.49 3.10 2.54 2.45 2.19
Iran 6.95 7.30 6.71 6.58 4.86 2.02 1.77 1.71[7]
Israel 3.91 3.12 2.95 3.03 2.90
Niger 7.56 7.53 7.51 7.78 7.81 7.73 7.49 6.89
Nigeria 6.42 6.36 6.47 6.85 6.46 6.12 5.98 5.31
Somalia 7.25 7.25 7.18 7.18 7.44 7.61 7.30 6.42
Turkey 5.68 3.41 3.11 2.50 2.08 1.76
WORLD 4.96 4.99 4.70 3.75 3.31 2.80 2.56 2.30

Niger currently has the highest TFR in the world.

In 2020 the Jewish TFR (3.00) surpassed the Arab Muslim TFR (2.99) for the very first time. The Ashkenazi Haredim TFR was 8.51 in 1996 and was estimated to be even higher in 2008.[8]

The figures for Somalia[9] and Niger[10] are estimates by the UN and Our World in Data. Birth data for these countries is incomplete.

History of low White fertility

Most Western European countries reached TFRs below replacement-level in the 1970s.

The first country to reach such low levels was Sweden in 1968, followed by Luxembourg, Denmark and Finland in 1969, and Germany in 1970. By 1980, the only countries with TFR above replacement level were Iceland (2.49), Ireland (3.25), and the former right-wing states of Greece (2.23), Portugal (2.19) and Spain (2.19).

In 1993, the only Western European country with TFRs above replacement level was Iceland at 2.21, which would sustain its TFRs of 1.9-2.2 for far longer than most other countries, until it reached permanent sub-replacement levels from 2015 onwards. A similar pattern can be seen seen in Ireland, where the TFR was stable around 1.9-2.1 until 2010 when it started to drop.

In 2022, the countries with the lowest TFRs were Spain (1.16) and Italy (1.24), while the highest were France (1.76) - possibly due to the high African fertility rate - and Ireland (1.70).

Possible causes of low fertility

Westernised capitalist liberal democracies (including South Korea and Japan) have shown rapidly declining TFRs because of easily accessible contraceptives and a normalisation of extreme planning for pregnancy, combined with womens' sexual liberation and social encouragement of postponing having children until after the pursuit of higher education and eventually a career is established.

It has been hypothesised that historically coercive marriage patterns and a relative lack of a sexual free market have led to a comparably lower need for natural attraction between the sexes, and thus lower natural need and want to create families and procreate, resulting in a low birth rate in liberal democracies with no coercion. This is likely a genetic component to the lower fertility rate seen in natives from Southern Europe (1.1-1.3) and East Asia (0.7-1.2) when compared to natives from Northwestern Europe (1.3-1.9). Remarkably, East Asian women in the US and East Asian women in their countries have the same TFR when White-Asian interracial marriages are taken into account.[11] It is not unreasonable to think that this same pattern is playing out in many Asian countries as they move away from their traditional arranged marriage system to a freer gynocentric system. The TFR of India was 2.0 in 2023, lower than Iceland's 2.04 in 2012, and keeps dropping fast.

In recent years, as western women have had increased higher access to men of higher status thanks to the internet and social media, their standards for men have increased accordingly[12]. This effect of "dating-up", where nearly all women find most men unattractive and only consider the best men, is known as hypergamy. The consequences of the last few years of the social media dating age are yet to be seen.

Under Communism

It is speculated that European populations who were conquered by the USSR in 1944-1945 had low birth-rates, and continue to have low birth rates, primarily because Communism inspires cultural pessimism. The lowest TFR recorded for a major territory of Western Europe has been 0.77 for the former GDR territories in 1994.

Consequences of low fertility

Low fertility rates are used to support the politically-correct notion that immigration is needed into Europe, and by anti-White radicals both to push ethno-masochism and calling for mass-immigration and miscegenation.

The “Very-Low Fertility Trap”

European TFRs were thought of as stable in the 1.25-1.75 range since the early 1970s. They appeared to be “stuck” there, unable to break into positive-growth territory. It was hypothesized by demographers that some of the racially-European world had reached a “fifth stage” of demographic transition, which is marked by stable “Very-Low Fertility”[13], defined as a TFR below 1.3[14]. However, there does not seem to be a lower bound of 1.25, as European countries' TFRs are continuing to decline, with Spain having reached the record low of 1.16 children per woman in 2022.

In 2002, there were 17 countries in Europe (total population 278 million) in “Very-Low Fertility” (below 1.3). Russia at 1.32 and Germany at 1.31, barely missed the cut.

It is claimed that no population has ever demonstrated an ability to recover to above replacement level, once it enters the low fertility range in peacetime[15].

There is one historical example that proves otherwise. A nation with low and declining fertility demonstrated an ability to dramatically recover to replacement level, and higher. This was National-Socialist Germany.

Another example of how state policies affect birth rates, is the stability of the Spanish birth rate in the 2.77-3.01 range (from 1960 to 1975) during Francisco Franco's rule, which quickly dropped from 2.89 at the end of his rule in 1974 to 2.04 in 1981, never recovering again.

The effect of TFR over time

If a population has a very low TFR sustained over time, it will eventually disappear.

Effects of Various TFRs Over Time, on a First-World Population of 10-million
Total Fertility Rate: 2.5 2.25 2.1 1.75 1.5 1.25 1.0
10 million 10 million 10 million 10 million 10 million 10 million 10 million
After One Generation 30 years 11.9 million 10.7 million 10 million 8.3 million 7.1 million 6.0 million 4.8 million
After Two Generations 60 years 14.2 million 11.5 million 10 million 6.9 million 5.1 million 3.5 million 2.3 million
After Three Generations 90 years 16.9 million 12.3 million 10 million 5.8 million 3.6 million 2.1 million 1.1 million
After Four Generations 120 years 20.1 million 13.2 million 10 million 4.8 million 2.6 million 1.3 million 514,000
After Five Generations 150 years 23.9 million 14.1 million 10 million 4.0 million 1.9 million 747,000 245,000
After Ten Generations 300 years 57.2 million 19.9 million 10 million 1.6 million 346,000 56,000 6,000
After Twenty Generations 600 years 326.9 million 39.7 million 10 million 261,000 12,000 300 4

See also

References

  1. ↑ Human Population Dynamics, p.137
  2. ↑ https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 2000 and 2009 figures: The World Factbook 2009. Central Intelligence Agency (2009). Retrieved on December 7th, 2009. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "CIA" defined multiple times with different content
  4. ↑ 1970 and 2006: UN World Fertility Estimates
  5. ↑ 1970, 1985, 1995, 2005: UN TFR Estimates
  6. ↑ https://population.un.org/wpp/
  7. ↑ https://web.archive.org/web/20220809032514/https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Files/1_Indicators%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2022_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_REV1.xlsx "World Population Prospects 2022 Demographic indicators by region, subregion and country, annually for 1950-2100" (XLS (91MB)) (2022).
  8. ↑ https://web.archive.org/web/20090327083941/http://www.focusanthro.org/archive/2005-2006/katz0506.pdf "The Fertility Dynamic of Israel's Ultra-Orthodox Jews and Pronatalist Governmental Policy"
  9. ↑ https://web.archive.org/web/20220809032514/https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Files/1_Indicators%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2022_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_REV1.xlsx
  10. ↑ https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?facet=none&Metric=Population&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None&country=~NER
  11. ↑ https://futuristright.substack.com/p/east-asian-extinction-level-fertility
  12. ↑ https://web.archive.org/web/20180406045814/https://theblog.okcupid.com/your-looks-and-your-inbox-8715c0f1561e
  13. ↑ The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis
  14. ↑ Low Fertility in Europe defined this threshold as "lowest-low"
  15. ↑ The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis
Retrieved from "http://en.metapedia.org/m/index.php?title=Total_fertility_rate&oldid=516791"